THE FOOTBALL RESEARCH DESK
NFL Week 3
Projection Center
One slate, three focused views: category leaders, the full player and team board, and matchup picks.
Loading source records…
WEEK 3 / PLAYER RESEARCH
Top five projections
Leaders by projected category across the selected slate. Touchdown percentages are model estimates, not calibrated odds.
OPEN PLAYBOOK
How to read the projections
Historical player production establishes a baseline. Team opportunities are allocated across projected roles, then adjusted for opponent and game environment. A depth-chart role is not confirmation of a starting lineup.
Weights, calculations, and limitations
The player baseline blends the prior season and current-season production. Current-season weight is n ÷ (n + 4.5), capped at 82%, where n is the player’s recorded games before the projected week. Same-week results are excluded. Missing game rows are not counted as zero.
Receiving yards = targets × estimated catch rate × yards per reception. Rushing yards = carries × yards per carry. Anytime TD = 1 − exp(−expected rushing and receiving touchdowns). Passing touchdowns do not count as a quarterback’s own TD. The 2+ TD estimate uses the same uncalibrated Poisson expectation; first-TD model percentages are shown for research only; calibration and release checks have not passed.
Opponent positional target and carry allowances adjust how fixed team opportunities are shared among positions. Defensive production allowed by QB, RB, WR, and TE is shown per game with its sample size and league rank where coverage is complete. Position-specific efficiency and TD factors are shrunk halfway toward neutral and capped at ±15%; these adjustments do not add team volume. Route participation, red-zone share, current weather, and live market lines are not inputs. Injury reports can be unavailable or incomplete, so projections are conditional on projected roles.
Source files include retrieval and calculation timestamps. The refresh uses upstream roster, schedule, and statistical records; upstream reporting may lag.
PLAYER RESEARCH
The player & team board
Search the slate, filter by team or role, and rank by a projection category.
MATCHUP BY MATCHUP
Game picks
Top Pick is the strongest projection, Solid is a viable middle-of-board play, and Sleeper is a lower-probability player with a measurable workload path to score.
First-TD percentages are experimental model estimates, not calibrated betting odds. Validation is incomplete. Other touchdown estimates are also uncalibrated; no live market lines.